A summary infographic showing hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms predicted from NOAA's 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. Credit: NOAA

NOAA forecasts below-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2026

Forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are predicting a below-normal hurricane season for 2026 in the Atlantic Ocean. 

The hurricane season runs from June 1 until November 30, and NOAA’s outlook predicts a 55% chance of below-normal season.

“With the most advanced forecast modeling and hurricane tracking technologies, NOAA and the National Weather Service are prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “Our experts are integrating cutting-edge tools to ensure communities in the path of storms receive the earliest, most accurate information possible.”

The agency is forecasting a total of 8-14 named storms with only 3-6 of those forecasted to become hurricanes.

Several factors contribute to the forecast. The main one that the report cites is El Nino is expected to intensify during the hurricane season, which supports less tropical storms.

However, the agency still encourages people to be prepared for hurricane season as forecasts are subject to change.